Every quarter, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) releases its figures. We see percentages, decimals, neat columns: “turnover down 0.7 percent, industrial sales prices down 0.6 percent.” A small shift, almost cosmetic, until you zoom out. Behind every fraction, there is sweat, risk, and resilience. Behind every decimal, an entrepreneur wonders whether to hire, expand, or retreat.
So let’s read the story behind the numbers, not just the numbers themselves.
The Fragile Dance of Domestic vs. Foreign
The data shows a 1.9 percent drop in domestic turnover against a 0.1 percent rise abroad. At first glance, trivial. But this split is the pulse of the Dutch economy:
- Domestic demand is contracting, households and local businesses are cautious, delaying orders, scaling down.
- Foreign demand is holding steady, perhaps reflecting the reliability of Dutch industry abroad, where reputation and quality still matter.
For a small or micro entrepreneur, this duality is dangerous. The home market feels colder, while the promise of foreign sales remains fragile, not guaranteed. Exporting requires scale, compliance, and cash flow, luxuries most small firms can’t mobilize overnight.
Winners and Losers Beneath the Surface
The averages hide a brutal truth: not all sectors move together.
-
Food & Beverage: +7.5% turnover
Higher prices (+4.1%) explain part of the growth, but this sector shows something deeper: people must eat, even when times are hard. Demand for essentials is sticky. -
Electrical & Machinery: +3.9%
Proof that technology and industrial machinery remain anchors of Dutch competitiveness. -
Refineries & Chemicals: -12.1%
Petroleum prices down nearly 20 percent have ripped into margins. For small suppliers chained to these giants, it feels like being tied to a sinking ship.
This divergence matters. If you’re a micro business supplying metal parts, packaging, or logistics to chemicals, you’re living in a different reality than the baker supplying supermarkets.
Profitability: Fourteen Quarters of Bleeding
For 14 consecutive quarters, more manufacturers report declining profitability than improving it. That’s three and a half years, a whole entrepreneurial cycle. Imagine a marathon where every kilometer is uphill, and the finish line keeps moving.
Even worse, this long erosion of profitability conditions behavior. Entrepreneurs cut innovation budgets, delay digitalization, and run their machines one year too long. In short: survival replaces ambition.
Bankruptcies: Lower Numbers, But Don’t Celebrate
Yes, bankruptcies fell, 74 in Q2 2025 vs. 87 a year earlier. That’s good news, but deceptive. Bankruptcy is a lagging indicator. It often means firms are still in “zombie mode”, alive, but hollow, burning through reserves and creativity while waiting for better days that don’t come.
For micro and small entrepreneurs, the danger is not the spectacular collapse. It’s the slow suffocation, a business that “survives” on paper but corrodes its owner’s energy, family, and future.
The Obstacles Entrepreneurs Name
CBS lists obstacles as if they were neutral:
- Labor shortage (31%)
- Insufficient demand (26%)
- Financial constraints (10%)
- No obstacles (31%)
But let’s be honest: for the small entrepreneur, these aren’t just percentages. They are lived dilemmas:
- Labor shortage isn’t about numbers. It’s the apprentice who leaves for a corporate job with a higher salary.
- Insufficient demand isn’t an abstract curve. It’s the empty order book on Monday morning.
- Financial constraints aren’t “10 percent.” They’re the banker who suddenly stops picking up the phone.
What Should Micro and Small Entrepreneurs in the Netherlands Learn?
- Don’t be fooled by averages. A -0.7 percent industry figure may sound small, but in fragmented markets, some are thriving while others bleed. Know which side you’re on.
- Domestic fragility matters. If you rely on Dutch demand, expect volatility. Export opportunities are real but come with barriers of compliance, cost, and culture.
- Profitability erosion is the real enemy. Growth without margin is slow suicide. Watch your cost base, not just your sales line.
- Survival ≠ success. Fewer bankruptcies don’t mean healthier companies. Build reserves before exhaustion sets in.
- Translate obstacles into action. If labor is scarce, automate or redesign workflows. If demand is weak, niche down or partner. Complaints don’t pay bills; adaptation does.
Final Thought
The Dutch manufacturing sector in Q2 2025 is neither collapsing nor flourishing. It is drifting. And drift is the most dangerous position for small entrepreneurs: not crisis (which forces clarity), not boom (which fuels expansion), but stagnation, the silent killer of ambition.
Micro and small business owners in the Netherlands must resist the temptation to wait passively for better quarters. The lesson in these numbers is simple but sharp: in times of erosion, leadership is not about predicting the storm, but about building the vessel that survives it.
Co-Creator of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC @ ZENTRIQ™
Paolo Maria Pavan builds systems that balance rules with freedom, clarity with transformation. In his third life, he writes and speaks openly about markets, governance, and risk, not as a trader chasing price, but as a reader of patterns, behaviors, and distortions. A serial entrepreneur shaped by failure and reinvention, he sees governance as a living force for trust and progress, and refuses to avoid the hard conversations that make it real.
